Wednesday, September 28, 2011

The best predictor earthquake - now what?

Popular media is ripe with stories of individuals or technologies that are able to predict earthquakes. Let us agree that you have developed the world's most earthquake prediction method.

My prediction is that if the predictive power is 100 percent accurate and correct, for each earthquake, to find out a lot of dust in your cabinets for the collection heirs. The bottom line is that most companies do not just let the huge economic and social chaos that would take a lessmore than 100% perfect forecast.

Earthquake & Tsunami In Japan

So you are really sensitive to a person or They have a yard full of animals or sensory Do you have a perfect algorithm and elegant mathematical analysis to physical variables such as the phase of the moon, dew point, planetary conjunctions, the occurrence frequency cycles or other triggering processes that previously was unknown until it develops correlate discovered. Perhaps you have developed the perfect equipment commercials / stress and instrumentationrelated, the neural network heuristic with the software program or You know rediscovered ancient shamans and can now predict earthquakes in advance of their occurrence.

And now? What happens after the Nobel Prize and get fit hat grows an inch or two? How is your new discovery to help your fellow travelers on this fracture always rocks whizzing around the sun?

Even totalitarian states can not always be large groups of people to evacuate without a perfect forecastSystem. Earthquake prediction systems are great sources of government grants, the discussion of the media, debate and entertainment, but is not part of a real life to become a mechanism for reducing deaths, injuries or property damage caused by earthquakes. Like horoscopes - lots of fun with them anyway.

I urge focus our efforts on the possible and the immediate delivery of warnings to save early for earthquakes that occur lives and dramatically reduce property damage.

The best predictor earthquake - now what?

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