Scientists have to accept their awful defeat because prediction of earthquakes has become tragically tough. Earthquakes of up-to-date years adequately prove this point. Seismic experts are realizing that the response of rocks to strain and seismic waves is more dynamic and complicated than their customary assumptions. In 1910, a geologist by name Henry Fielding Reid of Johns Hopkins University propounded a theory called Elastic Rebound Theory, according to which, rocks along the faults behave like twigs to bend under stress and snap when the stress becomes suited adequate to cross the threshold. When the plates collide against one another, the rocks along faults fetch the strain and when the strain becomes too huge to bear, earthquakes occur to publish the excess strain.
This theory has its roots on strain accumulation and according to experts, it will take many many centuries before the strain accumulation becomes huge adequate to trigger an earthquake. But the up-to-date earthquakes that have occurred did not show any signs of strain accumulation and this goes to prove that the elastic rebound theory does not interpret the mechanism of earthquakes fully.
Earthquake & Tsunami In Japan
The earthquakes of up-to-date times have occurred in short intervals and hence strain accumulation could not have triggered them. In fact, some of the up-to-date earthquakes have occurred in a cluster.
After prolonged research, scientists have proved that the compel of faults lying hundreds of kilometers away gets altered to set off tremors and for this, Landers earthquake in California of 1992 and Sumatra earthquake of 2004 are classic examples. Evidences from San Andreas Fault of Parkfield, California also give contradictory results that dilute the elastic rebound theory. The main point is it is a long way to go before scientists can boast that they can predict occurrences of earthquakes.
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